China’s exports in November 2023 recorded a slight increase on a month-on-month basis. The year-on-year growth in exports, measured in U.S. dollars, was 0.5% for November, marking an improvement of 6.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. This shift from negative to positive growth is notable, although according to the wind consensus estimate, the rate fell marginally short of the anticipated 0.7% growth.
Focusing on exports to the G3 countries (U.S., E.U., Japan), the year-on-year decline narrowed to 4.7% in November, showing a significant recovery from the 10.7% decline observed in October. Notably, exports to the U.S. rebounded impressively, shifting from a 10.7% year-on-year decline in October to a 7.3% increase. The decline in exports to Japan also narrowed, though exports to the E.U. saw an expanded year-on-year decline. Exports to North Asian economies experienced a modest year-on-year growth of 0.6%. In emerging markets, exports to ASEAN economies fell by 7.1% year-on-year, a smaller decline compared to the 15.1% observed previously. A remarkable increase was seen in exports to BRI economies (Brazil, Russia, and India), which surged to 17.9% from a mere 2.3%.
In November 2023, China saw a notable increase in the exports of key commodities, including automobiles, ships, cell phones, and home appliances. The year-on-year growth rates for these commodities were impressive, with automobiles recording a 27.9% increase, ships a remarkable 112.5% rise, cell phones growing by 54.5%, and home appliances by 10.3%. When compared to the figures from October, these growth rates show considerable variations: the growth rate for automobile exports decreased by 17.0 percentage points, whereas for ships, it surged by 78.4 percentage points. Cell phone exports increased by 32.6 percentage points, and home appliances saw a modest rise of 2.8 percentage points.
Conversely, labor-intensive products such as textiles, clothing, furniture, and toys experienced declines in November, falling by 11.7% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively. Industrial products, including exports of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, also declined by 12.8% and 6.1% year-on-year. Notably, electromechanical products, which encompass integrated circuits and automatic data-processing equipment, saw a 4.0% year-on-year decline in exports for November.
In summary, while the bottoming out of the tech cycles has supported exports from economies in the supply chain, Mainland China’s exports are yet to demonstrate strong growth momentum. The export growth is expected to continue fluctuating around current levels in the near term and is unlikely to rebound significantly. Potential challenges, including a potential recession in the U.S. and the high base effect, could exert downward pressure on exports in the second quarter of next year. However, stabilization is anticipated in 2024, with the total export volume expected to remain consistent with the levels of 2023.
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